Statnite

Two of college athletics’ hottest topics—transfers and player compensation—collided in transformative fashion when the NCAA introduced the transfer portal and name, image and likeness (NIL) legislation within a three-year span. The transfer portal was formally announced on June 13, 2018, and went into effect on Oct. 15 that year. It was designed as a tool that would allow student-athletes to explore opportunities at other programs without needing permission from their current school.

The NCAA outlined the process as follows: “This new system allows a student to inform his or her current school of a desire to transfer, then requires that school to enter the student’s name into a national transfer database within two business days. Once the student-athlete’s name is in the database, other coaches are free to contact that individual.”

Three years later, in April 2021, the NCAA adopted the long-debated one-time transfer rule, allowing Division I athletes in all sports—basketball and football included—to transfer once and play immediately, without having to sit out a season. One month later, the NCAA refined its waiver guidelines for athletes who didn’t qualify for the new exception, such as second-time transfers, with the changes taking effect in the 2022–23 academic year.

Then, on June 30, 2021, the NCAA suspended its NIL restrictions across all three divisions, clearing the way for student-athletes to profit from their name, image and likeness. The move signaled an unprecedented shift in the amateur model of college sports.

During that three-year span, college athletics underwent a seismic transformation that reshaped the foundation of amateur sports. What began as a push for more athlete mobility quickly evolved into a radical redefinition of power and opportunity. These rapid, back-to-back rule changes created a chaotic and unpredictable environment. Coaches were suddenly tasked with rebuilding rosters annually. Freshmen entered programs competing not just with upperclassmen, but with a flood of experienced transfers. Recruiting shifted away from long-term development and toward managing yearly turnover. The result was a sport where continuity was rare, loyalty was negotiable, and stability—especially for incoming freshmen—was harder than ever to come by.

Historically, elite high school recruits were the foundation of college basketball programs. Think the Fab Five, Zion Williamson, Carmelo Anthony and Anthony Davis. Coaches built around future lottery picks, and even mid-major programs could land and develop promising freshmen into key contributors. Think Ja Morant, CJ McCollum, Steph Curry, Cameron Payne and Elfrid Payton.

But since the NCAA implemented a one-time transfer rule without penalty in 2021, the landscape has shifted. Coaches now have access to veteran players with college experience and have left the door only halfway open for incoming freshmen.

“Incoming freshmen are the equivalent of a draft pick. You have to be flexible, got to be nimble, got to be willing to change and have an open mind,” USC head coach Eric Musselman said in an article published by Fox Sports on the transfer portal.

According to the latest data from the NCAA, 1,208 players entered the portal during the 2021 cycle and found a transfer destination at an NCAA-member school—825 of them undergraduates and 383 graduate students. In 2022, 1,200 players entered, with 847 undergraduates and 353 graduates. In 2023, that number grew to 1,296, including 864 undergraduates and 432 graduates.

Simultaneously, freshmen are seeing less playing time. A study of NCAA leaderboard data, which tracks players who appear in at least 75% of their team’s games, shows a dramatic decline in minutes for athletes labeled as freshmen. In 2024–25, only 34 freshmen averaged at least 30 minutes per game—nearly half the number from 2018–19, when 67 players reached that benchmark. The drop-off continues down the scale: 84 freshmen averaged at least 25 minutes this past season, compared to 166 six years ago. And for those averaging just 15 minutes per game—a common threshold for role players—the number has fallen from 425 to 250 in under a decade.

The erosion is consistent and undeniable. Each incremental minute threshold shows how fewer freshmen are making it into meaningful rotations. The year-to-year drop-off is a clear byproduct of programs leaning into veteran rosters and prioritizing transfers over development. It’s not just that freshmen are struggling to start—they’re struggling to even get on the floor.

In fact, in this past NCAA Tournament, only 33 freshmen played more than 20 minutes in a single game. For context, 124 total freshmen logged at least one minute. Ten years earlier, during the 2015–16 season, 51 freshmen played at least 20 minutes in a tournament game out of 160 total—meaning 32% of freshmen saw extended time. This past year, that number dipped to just 27%.

Even the national championship stage mirrored the trend. The 2024 title game was the first since 1989 in which no freshmen logged a single minute. In fact, those are the only two instances of a freshman failing to play in a championship game since at-large bids were introduced in 1975.

The numbers speak for themselves. As the transfer portal and NIL continue to redefine roster construction and recruitment strategies, the days of freshmen serving as foundational building blocks appear to be fading. While elite prospects will always find a path, the margin for error is slimmer, the patience shorter and the opportunities fewer. Development has taken a back seat to experience, and high school recruits must now fight harder than ever to earn—and keep—a spot in the rotation. In today’s version of college basketball, potential is no longer enough. Production is everything.